Structural combination of seasonal exponential smoothing forecasts applied to load forecasting

Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing

A new innovations state space modeling framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time series include time series with multiple seasonal periods, high frequency seasonality, non-integer s...

Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing

This paper considers univariate online electricity demand forecasting for lead times from a half-hour-ahead to a day-ahead. A time series of demand recorded at half-hourly intervals contains more than one seasonal pattern. A within-day seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand profile from one day to the next, and a within-week seasonal cycle is evident when one compares the ...

Forecasting Intraday Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Cycles Using Parsimonious Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series. An extension of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing has been proposed that smoothes an intraday cycle and an intraweek cycle. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitati...

Forecasting with exponential smoothing methods and bootstrap

The Boot.EXPOS procedure is an algorithm that combines the use of exponential smoothing methods with the bootstrap methodology for obtaining forecasts. In previous works the authors have studied and analyzed the interaction between these two methodologies. The initial sketch of the procedure was developed, modified and evaluated until its final form designated as Boot.EXPOS.

Forecasting for Inventory Control with Exponential Smoothing